Today may prove to be a historic day for Kazakhstan, but not because the ‘election campaign’ has officiously kicked off in Astana. After all, we all already know that the incumbent President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who has ruled the country for some twenty-one years, is going to win on 03 April 2011. In some respects, predictive political risk analysis for Central Asia is a piece of cake: the notoriously press friendly Nazarbaev’s advisor Ermukhammet Ertisbaev has already announced that the president is going to obtain around 95,9% of the votes (and given the Kazakh electoral mechanism, there is absolutely no reason to disbelieve his ‘vision’, plus or minus two percent).
The real reason why today matters is far less conspicuous than Nazarbaev’s rapturous megalomania, but it is much more important for social stability in Kazakhstan, where the population is hit hard by the relentless hikes in the prices for basic goods. Today is the day the Amendments to the State Regulations on Trade come into force. Hence, some say, today Kazakh Government begins to enforce policies that will publically testify its incompetence on matters paramount for basic subsistence of the Kazakh population, and perhaps also the survival of the ruling regime. And as the current events in the Middle East prove, in the long term, failed social policies tend to be more politically meaningful than any ‘election’ blueprints.
Official statistics, which are about as credible as the ones Ertisbaev prophesised for the forthcoming election, show that in the first month of 2011, prices for basic goods have risen by 12% (independent agencies and anecdotal evidence suggest the real figure for inflation is more akin to 40%). All this is happening despite the ruling party’s ardent promises that, in contrast to the rest of the world, no price hikes are envisaged for Kazakhstan (promises made as recently as autumn 2010). Local observers point out that the Kazakh Government rhetoric on matters pertaining to food provision has now changed from conciliatory to aggressively-defensive, and that now the ministers blame “market speculators” for the rise in prices, while at the same time continuing to claim that the reforms are all going “according to plan”.
And so it is little wonder that, quite contrary to its usually moderate editorials, local news portals such as Inosmikz.com are beginning to concentrate their attention on the fact that the governments’ stance of “we control the reforms completely, but somebody else is to blame for all of the country’s malaises” is completely incongruous and resonates badly with the electorate, that is increasingly prone to finding unofficial avenues to vent its anger. More so than ever, there appears to be a real disconnect between the rampant modernisation the government claims is happening in Kazakhstan and the reality of the situation, where people can barely afford to get by, all the while being told how lucky they are to have Nazarbaev as their leader.
In this context, the new Amendments to the Trade Regulation, which enable the government to literally set “appropriate” selling prices for basic goods, are best seen as a last-ditch attempt at social control, which is as prescriptive as it is unrealisable (especially as there appear to be few indications of what “appropriate” prices might look like). It is exactly a month until Kazakhstan elects its old President. Until 03 April 2011, it is expected that inflation is unlikely to get out of control, as the government will inevitably do everything in its power to maintain some semblance of order. However, economic indicators point to the fact that artificial anti-inflation measures are only going to exacerbate the situation and eventually the bubble is going to burst, possibly as early as April 2011. The utter predictability of this farcical election should not detract from the fact that political stasis and economic disaster do not bode well for stability in Kazakhstan. ‘Behind the scenes’ action is what really matters now.
