Results for the third stage of the lower house of parliament elections are due to be announced on 21 January 2012, with the first stage of Upper House elections set to begin on 29 January 2012. As a result of the overwhelming endorsement of the Freedom and Justice Party’s (FJP) Islamist agenda in the first two stages the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) will in effect control close to half the seats in the new Egyptian parliament. According to a projection posted by the group on 13 January 2012, the few remaining seats will be parcelled out among liberals, independents, politicians formerly linked to the Mubarak era, and other groups including those which played a role in triggering the revolt against Mubarak. Results of the third round of voting are expected to mirror this trend, which would give both the FJP and al-Nour a combined majority in parliament. Al-Nour’s role will depend on a political relationship with the FJP especially as the FJP previously insisted that would not form a coalition with al-Nour, and that the FJP in the ascendency). On 16 January 2012, the FJP claimed that Egyptian political parties will back proposing its Secretary-General Mohamed al-Katatni for the assembly’s speaker with the two deputy speaker posts going to al-Nour Party, runners up in the vote, and the liberal Wafd Party, one of the next biggest groups; an immediate move to placate al-Nour ahead of parliament gathering for its first session on 23 January 2012. However, in an interesting development, which could show a direct correlation to each other’s interests in the future of Egypt, a leading member of the MB has claimed that the FJP would accept that members of the ruling military council be granted immunity from legal or criminal liability to guarantee a peaceful handover of power and avoid “trouble” in the sense of escalation in violence and instability. Although the official was quick to add that the MB were not advocating such a scenario, but if other political forces were in agreement, they would support the idea including compensating the families of the martyrs. The controversial statement has already led to more accusations of cosying up to the ruling military council in order for a future FJP led parliament to secure military backing. Looking ahead to the future make-up of the Egyptian parliament, the FJP will need to balance the interests of the SCAF with those of the Salafists. Its relationship with al-Nour is key especially as the MB and the Egyptian Salafists represent different segments of Egyptian society and are historical rivals. Despite these tensions, the FJP may find it beneficial to come to a political middle ground with the Salafists, offering al-Nour political concessions.
Our Corporate Intelligence team has produced a report on ‘What Happens Next In Egypt –An Analysis Of The Egyptian Elections And Forthcoming Risk to Stability In 2012’. This is a comprehensive analysis of the current situation in Egypt post the lower house elections, addresses the potential problems ahead with amongst others; the recent trend of rising crime (including that perpetrated against expatriates, the future make-up of the Egyptian parliament (due to be led by the FJP and other affiliated Islamists), the outcome of the upper house elections, future presidential elections and the impact of the verdict in the Mubarak trial. This report provides a vital briefing tool for an organisation’s forward planning in Egypt. It can be purchased for £125+ VAT.
Please contact enquiries@inkerman.com or Telephone +44 (0) 1233 646940.
Images from our team on the ground as well as comment on emerging developments and trends can be found on our Facebook page http://www.facebook.com/TheInkermanGroup. You can also follow us on Twitter http://twitter.com/inkermangroup.
The Inkerman Group provides Crisis Management and Security Evacuation services.
For further information, and regular updates on the security situation in Egypt and other countries, please contact Operations@inkerman.com
