Posted by Josephine on 20 Feb 2012 in Africa, Blog, Elections, Middle East, Political Risk
Thousands of people took to the streets in cities across Libya, waving their arms, shouting and singing as fireworks blasted in the skies. Gone were the monochromatic green flags of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, instead, in the hands of most citizens, were the red, black and green colours of post-Gaddafi Libya. The bold new tri-coloured flag, which features a white crescent moon and star in the centre, is, in effect, the symbol of a bold, new Libya. Only one year after the bogeyman himself, the now deceased Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, initiated a bloody crackdown against his own people which left more than 200 dead in a single day in Benghazi on 20 February 2012, Libyans are now enjoying something they have not experienced in nearly half a century: freedom.
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Posted by Josephine on 13 Feb 2012 in Africa, Blog, Military Activity, Political Risk
Proving that no supposedly good deed goes unpunished, the ousting of Gaddafi has arguably led to further security problems across the Sahel as new revolutionary groups are emerging in the months following the end of the Libyan uprising, thanks in large part to an almost never ending supply of weapons. Underscoring just how widespread this problem is, on 26 January 2012, the UN released a report indicating that militant groups in Africa’s Sahel region, including Nigerian-based Islamic terror organisation, Boko Haram, and al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), now have access to thousands of arms that are thought to have originated from the late dictator Muammar Gaddafi’s vast weapons caches. The Inkerman Group already noted this problem back in October 2011, as reports indicated that at least 10,000 surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) had made their way across the Sahel, whilst other weapons from Libya were spotted as far away Somalia. Just how problematic the fall of Gaddafi is for the security of Africa still remains to be seen. Nevertheless, his ouster has already had unintended consequences in Mali, Niger, Chad, and Mauritania, as nomadic tribes, who previously fought alongside the Libyan dictator thanks to his years of support, are now wreaking havoc across the region.
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Posted by Josephine on 6 Feb 2012 in Africa, Blog, Corruption, Military Activity, Political Risk
As Nigeria’s Twittersphere is flooding with rumours over what the deadly Islamic militant group Boko Haram’s next target will be – the latest online whispers hint at a possible attack on commercial centres on Valentine’s Day – there are new indications that the feared group is ready to enter talks with the Nigerian Government. Boko Haram, or what is left of it following an apparent ideological split, is reportedly insisting on holding negotiations with President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration outside of Nigeria, with the likely spot expected to be Qatar. Jonathan has also hinted at entering into talks with the terror group. Following this news, as well as the recent high-profile arrests of key militant members and growing dissent within the Islamic extremist group’s ranks, analysts are asking: is this beginning of the end for Boko Haram?
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Posted by Josephine on 25 Jan 2012 in Africa, Blog, Middle East, Political Risk
In an event that arguably highlights the interim government’s lack of authority in Libya, the National Transitional Council (NTC) appeared to have lost control of Bani Walid on 24 January 2012, amid reports of a series of attacks by alleged “pro-Gaddafi” forces across several cities, including the capital, Tripoli, and the eastern city of Benghazi. Meanwhile, Bani Walid elders have announced they will begin appointing their own local government, and say they will no longer be dictated to by authorities in Tripoli. It is unclear at time of publication if the attacks across Libya were coordinated. However, one thing is certain: the situation in Libya is far more complicated than simply a case of NTC forces battling Gaddafi loyalists.
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Posted by Josephine on 23 Jan 2012 in Africa, Blog, Military Activity, Political Risk
As Nigeria grapples with the recent devastating attacks from the Islamist militant sect Boko Haram which have left at least 216 people dead, neighbouring West African nations are also left shaken as they struggle to prevent a similar deadly fate from occurring within their own borders. However, for many of these countries, any security measures undertaken to prevent Boko Haram from infiltrating into their territories may be too little too late, as the threat has already made itself known across the region. One such country, Cameroon, has already seen the spectre of Boko Haram emerging in the shadows, and has been the subject of criticism for not only failing to coordinate regional anti-terrorist operations, but, along with Niger, has also been accused of allowing the free movement of Boko Haram militants into long-suffering Nigeria.
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