Posted by Josephine on 12 Mar 2012 in Africa, America, Elections, Libya, Middle East, Political Risk, Revolution, United States
These are the stories of revolutions, or rather, their fallout. Although the path leading up to an uprising that ends in the deposing of a despised dictator is filled with idealism and bloody confrontation, the months and years following the official end of a revolution are perhaps more delicate. As is seen in both the American Revolution and in the current fallout from the 2011 Libyan uprising, dreaming of democracy is one thing, seeing democracy actually come to fruition is an entirely different story. The United States and Libya have undergone such dramatic democratic upheavals, each underpinned by their own history and cultural values, and despite their vast differences, the two countries have dealt with a similar set of circumstances in the wake of their respective revolutions: Both have had to deal with powerful militias whilst balancing the need for a central authority without neglecting the calls for a locally elected government. In the first part of this series, we will look at the how Libya is currently working towards amalgamating its militias in order to create a stronger, united country, an issue which the United States also had to take a deep look at in the aftermath of its Revolutionary War.
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Posted by Josephine on 27 Feb 2012 in Africa, Elections, Middle East, Political Risk
Thousands have taken to the streets, protesters have engaged in clashes almost daily with national security forces, whilst disenchanted youths continue to call for an aging leader who has been in power for more than twelve years to step down. This is not a flashback to the ‘Arab Spring’ uprisings of 2011. This is Senegal, in the days leading up to the hotly contested 2012 presidential elections.
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Posted by Josephine on 20 Feb 2012 in Africa, Elections, Middle East, Political Risk
Thousands of people took to the streets in cities across Libya, waving their arms, shouting and singing as fireworks blasted in the skies. Gone were the monochromatic green flags of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, instead, in the hands of most citizens, were the red, black and green colours of post-Gaddafi Libya. The bold new tri-coloured flag, which features a white crescent moon and star in the centre, is, in effect, the symbol of a bold, new Libya. Only one year after the bogeyman himself, the now deceased Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, initiated a bloody crackdown against his own people which left more than 200 dead in a single day in Benghazi on 20 February 2012, Libyans are now enjoying something they have not experienced in nearly half a century: freedom.
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Posted by Josephine on 13 Feb 2012 in Africa, Military Activity, Political Risk
Proving that no supposedly good deed goes unpunished, the ousting of Gaddafi has arguably led to further security problems across the Sahel as new revolutionary groups are emerging in the months following the end of the Libyan uprising, thanks in large part to an almost never ending supply of weapons. Underscoring just how widespread this problem is, on 26 January 2012, the UN released a report indicating that militant groups in Africa’s Sahel region, including Nigerian-based Islamic terror organisation, Boko Haram, and al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), now have access to thousands of arms that are thought to have originated from the late dictator Muammar Gaddafi’s vast weapons caches. The Inkerman Group already noted this problem back in October 2011, as reports indicated that at least 10,000 surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) had made their way across the Sahel, whilst other weapons from Libya were spotted as far away Somalia. Just how problematic the fall of Gaddafi is for the security of Africa still remains to be seen. Nevertheless, his ouster has already had unintended consequences in Mali, Niger, Chad, and Mauritania, as nomadic tribes, who previously fought alongside the Libyan dictator thanks to his years of support, are now wreaking havoc across the region.
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Posted by Josephine on 6 Feb 2012 in Africa, Corruption, Military Activity, Political Risk
As Nigeria’s Twittersphere is flooding with rumours over what the deadly Islamic militant group Boko Haram’s next target will be – the latest online whispers hint at a possible attack on commercial centres on Valentine’s Day – there are new indications that the feared group is ready to enter talks with the Nigerian Government. Boko Haram, or what is left of it following an apparent ideological split, is reportedly insisting on holding negotiations with President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration outside of Nigeria, with the likely spot expected to be Qatar. Jonathan has also hinted at entering into talks with the terror group. Following this news, as well as the recent high-profile arrests of key militant members and growing dissent within the Islamic extremist group’s ranks, analysts are asking: is this beginning of the end for Boko Haram?
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