Inkerman Insights
With cybercrime continuing to dominate headlines, with the Mandiant investigation into a Chinese hacking group with alleged links to the military the latest headline to get pulses racing, researchers at Google have recently announced their latest development in the constant arms race against the threat posed to internet users by illicit online criminal groups and nation states.
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In a result which many believe could mark a considerable departure from Georgia’s fiercely pro-Western stance, it was announced on 02 October 2012, that the loose coalition of opposition parties united under billionaire businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili ‘Georgian Dream’ banner defeated the United National Movement (UNM) party of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. The result highlights how the release of the prison torture video appears to have galvanised an opinion held by many, that despite sweeping to power on a ‘law and order’ ticket and being a darling of the West, there has been growing concern within Georgia about the pervasive and brutal control administered by the state. Whilst the result of the election may now be a certainty, it remains unclear whether or not this is also a sign that the Georgian public no longer share the ambitions and views of their pro-European president, or if he has simply been punished for his domestic policies in a knee-jerk reaction to the prison scandal. In addition, although both parties have espoused widely similar and equally vague polices loosely based on an improvement of social welfare, Ivanishvili has remained tight-lipped about his international intentions and it remains difficult to ascertain whether Georgia’s future lies in the West with Europe and NATO or the East with Russia and Putin’s Eurasian union.
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In what appears to be a direct affront to the European Commission, it was announced on 11 September 2012, that Russian President Vladimir Putin had signed a decree requiring strategic Russian companies operating abroad to obtain Moscow’s permission in order to disclose information to foreign regulators, change contracts, and sell property abroad. The hastily constructed legislation is undoubtedly a direct response by the Kremlin to the recent announcement by the EC that it is to begin an anti-trust probe into state-controlled gas export monopoly Gazprom. The announcement comes following a week of posturing by all parties and is indicative of both the EU and Moscow’s growing unease with energy production and dependence within Europe.
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Despite ending well over a decade ago, the swift and violent consequences of a recent alleged assassination plot have demonstrated that outside the country’s more developed regions, tensions between Tajikistan’s Government and majority Muslim population continue to run high. At time of publication, a military operation launched in a matter of days following the murder of a top officer in the Tajikistan State Committee for National Security (GKNB) (Successor to the Soviet-era KGB), had seen the death of twelve Tajik troops and thirty alleged rebel fighters in the eastern Gorno-Badakhshan region in order to crush former opposition elements allegedly responsible for the assassination. This, however, remains the ‘official’ government tally and does not account for rumours alluding to widespread civilian deaths and injuries with some sources alleging the actual toll may be closer to 200. These suggestions are of a particular concern in light of the knowledge that ahead of the operation all communication coming out of the region had been cut and employees of local and international aid agencies evacuated, fuelling fears that the Tajik Government is relishing the opportunity to reassert its dominance in a region which is in close proximity to Afghanistan and haven for former warlords, or so-called Komandos has made it increasingly resistive.
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In an event largely ignored by the mainstream Western media, the brother-in-law of the Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon was killed on 13 June 2012, in what appears to have been an assassination. Rahmon’s brother-in-law, Kholmumin Safarov, was found dead near his home in the capital Dushanbe after gunmen targeted him as he was returning from evening prayers at a local mosque. Following Safarov’s funeral in the southern Tajikistan district of Danghara on 15 June 2012, the authorities suggested that they are no closer to discovering who is responsible for the high-level assassination and what the motivation for the attack may have been. However, the considerable lack of any solid information appears to be the consequence of an increasing domination of a ruling elite steeped in mystery.
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