Posted by Patrick Allen on 17 Jun 2013 in Afghanistan, Central Asia, Iran, Mining, Pakistan, Political Risk, South Asia, Taliban
As the end of NATO-ISAF operations in Afghanistan draws ever-nearer, the important role played by underlying regional power dynamics in defining the future of the region is becoming increasingly clear. Whilst existing diplomatic or military ties are now being challenged and redefined throughout the wider Asian political arena, it is the new set of relationships between India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran that is the most interesting in terms of its potential for wider geopolitical impact.
One of the most widely reported stories on this subject has been that of the Indo-Afghan-Iranian rapprochement and the subsequent agreements regarding the extension of trade routes from Eastern Afghanistan to the Iranian port of Chabahar. Relying on an Indian investment, these improvements would see rail assets extended from the main trunk of the Trans-Iranian Railway to link up the port facilities with the border town of Bam. From here, freight for Afghanistan would transfer to road transport, taking the Indian built road to join up with Afghanistan’s ‘garland highway’ that links all of the country’s major cities.
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Posted by Cassie Blombaum on 28 May 2013 in Africa, Algeria, America, Central Asia, Energy, Exploration, IEDs, Iran, Libya, Mali, Middle East, Military Activity, Mining, Political Risk, United States
Niger is becoming a new battleground of sorts for competing international powers and terror groups alike, thanks in part to the French-led war on neighbouring Mali’s militants. Despite making significant gains in Mali, France’s Operation Serval has also forced armed groups in their hundreds to migrate throughout the Sahel, many of which are now wreaking the very same havoc in Niger. In particular, Jamat Tawhid Wal Jihad Fi Garbi Afriqqiya (also known as the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa, or MUJAO), has already been blamed for a number of high-profile attacks across the border in Niger. To that end, on 23 May 2013, MUJAO militants reportedly planted a series of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) beneath two vehicles located in opposite ends of the country. The first IED-laden vehicle exploded outside a military barracks in Agadez, which resulted in the deaths of twenty-four soldiers and one civilian. Meanwhile, approximately 240 kilometres north in Arlit, more explosive devices detonated inside a vehicle parked near a uranium mine facility. Whilst zero fatalities were reported at the site of the second bombing, at least thirteen employees of the French-run nuclear firm, Areva, were left seriously injured.
Both bombings have been described as proof that the overused social science phrase, the “balloon effect”, is more than just a theoretical concept. In this case, military pressure applied against armed Salafists in northern Mali has clearly pushed militants toward other less resistant areas, namely the remote, mountainous region along the border with Niger. But the two attacks have also shed light on another interesting development: the growing role of Niger as a “playground” for global power politics.
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Posted by Maximilian Hess on 18 Mar 2013 in Caspian, Central Asia, Energy, Political Risk
On 17 March 2013, Iran launched its second domestically built destroyer, the Jamaran-2. However, unlike the first Jamaran destroyer, which was launched in the Persian Gulf, the Jamaran-2 was launched in the Caspian Sea and will be stationed in the port city of Bandar Anzali, roughly 240 kilometres north of Tehran. Iran’s latest move to assert itself militarily in the Caspian is only the latest in a series of incendiary measures taken by the five states in the Caspian Sea littoral: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia. The Caspian Sea has become increasingly volatile over the last few years with each nation on its shores upgrading, or planning to upgrade, their military capabilities. The simmering tensions in the Caspian Sea could even boil over into naval warfare.
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Posted by Maximilian Hess on 1 Mar 2013 in Business Risk, Central Asia, Mining, Political Risk
Threat of Nationalisation
Kyrgyzstan’s internal political tensions reached a new apex on 21 February 2013, when the Kyrgyz parliament passed a motion announcing that if Canadian mining firm Centerra Gold did not agree to restructure its deal with Kyrgyzstan regarding the operation of the Kumtor mine that Kyrgyzstan would unilaterally cancel the contract. The threat of nationalisation has loomed in the air ever since. The current management contract for the mine in Kyrgyzstan’s eastern Issyk Kul Province was granted in 2009 under the regime of former president Kurmanbek Bakiyev (although Centerra Gold, Kyrgyzstan’s largest private employer, has operated the mine since 1997). Tensions had been brewing throughout 2012 as Kyrgyz politicians brought up the contract not only in parliamentary hearings but in public rallies. The Kumtor mine has become the go-to issue for Kyrgyz politicians seeking to bolster their nationalist credentials and score political points.
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Posted by Isaac Hewlings on 1 Nov 2012 in Afghanistan, Business Risk, Central Asia, China, Corruption, Energy, Exploration, Mining, Organised Crime, Political Risk, South Asia, Taliban
The unveiling of India’s ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy this summer, along with Washington’s ‘New Silk Road’ and Chinese engagement in the region, suggests that Central Asia may be moving towards greater integration into the global economy. As ISAF prepares to leave Afghanistan in 2014, are there grounds for hope that the notoriously contested region will see co-operative and economically fruitful relations between the regional heavyweights?
As ever, the success of these great powers’ policy is inextricably linked to Afghanistan. If the US can identify an exit strategy that guarantees the integrity of the country, at least in the short-term, then a fertile environment for large infrastructure projects may take hold. Unless such stability in Afghanistan is achieved then any progress towards integrating the fragile Central Asian states into the global economy will be precluded. A prolonged internecine war in Afghanistan would destroy the viability of these projects, as well as change the terms of the game into those of a fiercely competitive nature. Only Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which have existing, though limited, access to energy markets abroad, would be insulated.
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Posted by Jonathan Witherspoon on 3 Oct 2012 in Business Risk, Caspian, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, Elections, Political Risk
In a result which many believe could mark a considerable departure from Georgia’s fiercely pro-Western stance, it was announced on 02 October 2012, that the loose coalition of opposition parties united under billionaire businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili ‘Georgian Dream’ banner defeated the United National Movement (UNM) party of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. The result highlights how the release of the prison torture video appears to have galvanised an opinion held by many, that despite sweeping to power on a ‘law and order’ ticket and being a darling of the West, there has been growing concern within Georgia about the pervasive and brutal control administered by the state. Whilst the result of the election may now be a certainty, it remains unclear whether or not this is also a sign that the Georgian public no longer share the ambitions and views of their pro-European president, or if he has simply been punished for his domestic policies in a knee-jerk reaction to the prison scandal. In addition, although both parties have espoused widely similar and equally vague polices loosely based on an improvement of social welfare, Ivanishvili has remained tight-lipped about his international intentions and it remains difficult to ascertain whether Georgia’s future lies in the West with Europe and NATO or the East with Russia and Putin’s Eurasian union.
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