Posted by Christian Earl on 5 Apr 2013 in Business Risk, China, East Asia, Japan, Military Activity, North Korea, Political Risk, South Korea, United States
DOES THE RECENT INCREASE IN TENSIONS SIGNIFY MERELY INCREASED RHETORIC FROM NORTH KOREA AND BRINKMANSHIP TO EXTRACT INCENTIVES, OR ARE THEY PRECURSORS TO FORTHCOMING MILITARY ACTION?
North Korea has steadily escalated its rhetoric since February 2013, when it completed another nuclear test. Pyongyang has threatened both South Korea and the US with a nuclear attack, severed its hotline with Seoul, closed the main Panmunjom border crossing, reactivated the Yongbyon nuclear reactor site, halted entry into the Kaesong joint development area, warned that “inter-Korean relations had entered into a state of war”, and has now reportedly moved road-mobile missile systems. It also threatened to retaliate against any provocative acts by South Korea or the US, which are currently carrying out joint military exercises on the Korean peninsula. For North Korea, the current rise in tensions are likely not a clear cut drive to war but rather they are used to shape the perceptions of those involved in peninsular affairs, to create political tensions in and between Seoul, Washington, Beijing, Tokyo, Moscow and others. By pressuring South Korea and the US to resume talks to dismantle its nuclear programmes, resume food aid in the face of increased UN backed international sanctions, North Korea is attempting to achieve its end goal of signing a defacto peace treaty to end the Korean War which remains technically on hold and is in its 60th year. Pyongyang feels that if it can force another set of negotiations, that will exchange a brief relaxation of tensions, it can gain vital economic and political concessions. This does not diminish the threat of miscalculation or an accident as the level of tension grows. As our series of projected outcomes and recommendations contained in our blog illustrate.
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Posted by Christian Earl on 14 Mar 2013 in Business Risk, China, East Asia, Energy, Exploration, Japan, Military Activity, North Korea, Political Risk, South Korea, United States
Is latest increase in rhetoric just bluff or the start of a wider military engagement which would make any chances of a Trans-Korean pipeline now a pipedream?
A sexist jab became the latest in a barrage of verbal insults direct by North Korea towards its southerly neighbour South Korea on 14 March 2013, after Pyongyang attributed the recent tensions between the Korean nations as being linked to a ‘venomous swish of skirt’ from Seoul’s newly appointed female President Park Geun-hye. Such a swipe takes the continuing torrent of rhetoric from Pyongyang (which has threatened nuclear war this week), to a new level, but no matter how personnel or ridiculous the claims seem President Park continues to stick by her campaign vow to reach out to Kim Jong Un rather than to alienate the fragile regime any further. How long will this last?
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Posted by Cassie Blombaum on 4 Mar 2013 in Africa, Business Risk, China, Corruption, East Asia, Elections, Kenya, Military Activity, Political Risk
Although most leaders from the international community remain transfixed on the situation developing in Mali, on the other side of the continent, a more optimistic picture is emerging from the East African state of Kenya. Upwards of 14 million people are expected to head to the polls today, 04 March 2013, to cast their ballots for six different positions, including the highly coveted role of president. It is this contest, which will see eight different candidates vie for control of country’s highest office, which some analysts have described as a ‘make or break’ moment for Kenya. Some naysayers are concerned that the country may see all out battles in the vein of the bloodshed which filled the streets following the last election in 2007. However, aside from localised violence in the country’s restive east, at present, the only large-scale “battle” is that of the political kind, complete with last-minute mud-slinging and the usual scathing accusations from contesting parties.
Other than the violence in the east, the elections process has thus far proceeded without large-scale security setbacks, and voters have preferred to convey a more jubilant tone, as thousands of people were spotted singing, dancing, and generally celebrating their historic moment. Such optimism was perhaps best summed up in the simple, yet meaningful, political cartoon released by Kenya’s most influential newspaper, The Daily Nation, on 04 March 2013, which showed a man casting a ballot for only one candidate: “peace”. These joyful scenes notwithstanding, international investors are still advised to remain particularly cautious with regard to the aftermath of the Kenyan election, which could not only be marred in bouts of tribal violence, but may also see a severe reversal of fortune for Western businesses.
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Posted by Christian Earl on 22 Feb 2013 in Business Risk, East Asia, IEDs, Kidnap, Military Activity, Political Risk, Revolution, Thailand
In a week which saw Thailand’s National Economic and Social Development Board report a nationwide economic expansion of 6.4% (the fastest rate of annual growth since 2003, largely due to the government’s populist polices which enabled Real GDP growth of 18.9% year on year), southern Thailand’s Muslim insurgency entered a new phase which is negatively affecting business risk and could yet impact tourism to key destinations such as Phuket.
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Posted by Jonathan Witherspoon on 20 Feb 2013 in Business Risk, China, Cyber Crime, Political Risk
With cybercrime continuing to dominate headlines, with the Mandiant investigation into a Chinese hacking group with alleged links to the military the latest headline to get pulses racing, researchers at Google have recently announced their latest development in the constant arms race against the threat posed to internet users by illicit online criminal groups and nation states.
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Posted by Christian Earl on 12 Feb 2013 in Business Risk, China, East Asia, Japan, Military Activity, North Korea, Political Risk, South Korea, United States
A magnitude 5.1 tremor was detected at the Punggye-ri underground nuclear test site in North Korea’s north-eastern Kilju County on 12 February 2013, caused by a third nuclear test which resulted in almost universal international condemnation. It also saw South Korea place its military on alert only days after it had already relaxed the “rules of engagement” at border posts which may now see the risk of small scale conflict rise as South Korean guards now have authority to shoot back immediately if they come under attack. The likelihood of open hostilities between the two countries remains unlikely. However, clashes as seen in 2010 around the Yeonpyeong Islands cannot be discounted.
Although it is not yet clear yet what sort of device was tested, experts believe it involved a miniaturised nuclear device with more explosive force than previous tests (which had a seven-kiloton yield) and that it was probably a uranium device. It would follow-on to its two earlier plutonium tests in 2006 and 2009 and most importantly would now signify it has mastered the ability to produce highly enriched uranium. Despite this understandable concern, North Korea is still thought to be some way off having the ability to produce a nuclear warhead small enough to mount on a reliable long-range missile, but estimates suggest that it does currently have enough fissile material for about a dozen plutonium warheads.
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