Posted by Spoons on 20 Jan 2012 in Blog, Eastern Europe, Political Risk
Despite denials from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) that they are responsible for a bomb attack in the south eastern city of Hakkari, there is little doubt that whoever was responsible for the attack (which bore all the hallmarks of the PKK south eastern insurgency) will have had at least some affiliation to the organisation which has waged an armed conflict against the state since 1984 at the cost of around 40,000 lives. Unfortunately, whilst a tragedy, the impact of the explosion upon both a region and a country, which has become hardened to sporadic and mindless acts of terror will be limited. This latest incidents highlights both the political and military failings in the Turkish Government’s on going response to the “Kurdish issue” and demonstrates the necessity of stepping up efforts for the reinstating of a ceasefire.
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Posted by Spoons on 16 Jan 2012 in Blog, Eastern Europe, Elections, Political Risk
The Romanian Government has called an emergency meeting following four days of unrest, the worst in around twenty years, and which some analysts are predicting could bring down the current Government. Although the largest and most violent protests have been concentrated in the capital Bucharest, actions are believed to have been staged in around forty towns in the country, prompting fears that the Government’s perceived inability in solving Romania’s festering economic crisis could gain enough support to have a significant impact on the form of the current government.
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Posted by Spoons on 12 Jan 2012 in Blog, Eastern Europe, Military Activity, Political Risk
Highlighting Moscow’s continuing efforts to try and pacify the North Caucasus, an assault carried out by Russian troops on a rebel camp located in Chechnya’s heavily forested mountains has resulted in the death of four Russian soldiers and at least three Islamist militants. Despite much of the militant insurgency previously based in Chechnya shifting to other parts of the North Caucasus region and in particular Dagestan, there are still active elements to be found in the territory which has been a long-running thorn in Russia’s side. However, Chechen President and Kremlin puppet Ramzan Kadyrov recently claimed in an interview on Chechen television that there “may be no more than fifty” militants still active in the country, a figure he claimed was supported both by operational information and those militants recently captured. Regardless of the validity of these claims, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the North Caucasus, once the backbone of Putin’s power, are now increasingly becoming a source of growing frustration, both in the Kremlin and with the Russian people.
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Posted by Spoons on 9 Dec 2011 in Blog, Corruption, Eastern Europe, Elections, Political Risk
When Russian voters took to the polls on 04 December 2011, to decide the shape of the lower house of the Russian Parliament known as the Duma, in what many regarded as a referendum on current Prime Minister, and expected future President, Vladimir Putin. If Putin and his supporters hoped, however, that the results would be a glowing endorsement of the Russian people’s adoration of not only his leadership, but his United Russia Party were soon dashed with the results illustrating that support appears to have fallen to just under 50% from the 64% of the vote the party received in 2007. The results are, however, not a complete shock to observers as there had been indications that the vote was going to see a significant fall in support for United Russia with a survey conducted by the Levada Center between 28 October – 01 November 2011, revealing that just 51% of Russians supported United Russia. What has been something of a shock is the reaction of some of the Russian people whose defiance in the face of what they have described as dirtiest elections since Putin’s rise to the Kremlin is considerable. Despite the noble intentions it becomes apparent that conversely rather seeing much needed changes to the Russian political and social landscape the unrest may result in an increasingly paranoid and openly authoritarian regime.
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Posted by Spoons on 10 Nov 2011 in Blog, Eastern Europe, Political Risk
The European Commission declared on 03 November 2011, that Latvia’s three-year US$10.3 billion bailout programme was an example to the rest of the European Union. Speaking after a meeting with Latvian Prime Minister Vadlis Dombrovskis, commission representative Gabriele Gudice stated that the loan package which formally ends on 22 December 2011, had proved to be an exemplary programme for the rest of Europe.
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Posted by Desmond on 4 Nov 2011 in Blog, East Asia, Eastern Europe, Political Risk
At a time when the sovereign debt crisis places ‘the Eurozone’, the European monetary union project in jeopardy, China is being encouraged to lend a supporting hand of up to US$100 billion. However, confidence in Beijing’s ability to manage its own finances despite its huge wealth has been shaken by a series of bad news about the nation’s private enterprises and its labyrinthine underground banking system in recent months that could put any international faith in any Chinese led bailout in difficulty itself. To summarise a turbulent week from a Greek financial perspective, despite a previous agreement struck between global economic powers, a counter move was launched by the Greeks on 01 November 2011, to hold a referendum into the legality of adopting them. George Papandreou’s stunning announcement of non-interference has thrown the Eurozone back into turmoil may bring down his government and hasten the end of his political career. Global markets slid as a result of the announcement amid fears the Greek bailout deal would collapse, but the worst affected were the Asian markets especially due to the price of the Chinese currency, the Yuan, which had dramatically strengthened in the approach to a deal and fell as a result.
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