Posted by Spoons on 9 Dec 2011 in Corruption, Eastern Europe, Elections, Political Risk
When Russian voters took to the polls on 04 December 2011, to decide the shape of the lower house of the Russian Parliament known as the Duma, in what many regarded as a referendum on current Prime Minister, and expected future President, Vladimir Putin. If Putin and his supporters hoped, however, that the results would be a glowing endorsement of the Russian people’s adoration of not only his leadership, but his United Russia Party were soon dashed with the results illustrating that support appears to have fallen to just under 50% from the 64% of the vote the party received in 2007. The results are, however, not a complete shock to observers as there had been indications that the vote was going to see a significant fall in support for United Russia with a survey conducted by the Levada Center between 28 October – 01 November 2011, revealing that just 51% of Russians supported United Russia. What has been something of a shock is the reaction of some of the Russian people whose defiance in the face of what they have described as dirtiest elections since Putin’s rise to the Kremlin is considerable. Despite the noble intentions it becomes apparent that conversely rather seeing much needed changes to the Russian political and social landscape the unrest may result in an increasingly paranoid and openly authoritarian regime.
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Posted by Spoons on 10 Nov 2011 in Eastern Europe, Political Risk
The European Commission declared on 03 November 2011, that Latvia’s three-year US$10.3 billion bailout programme was an example to the rest of the European Union. Speaking after a meeting with Latvian Prime Minister Vadlis Dombrovskis, commission representative Gabriele Gudice stated that the loan package which formally ends on 22 December 2011, had proved to be an exemplary programme for the rest of Europe.
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Posted by Desmond on 4 Nov 2011 in East Asia, Eastern Europe, Political Risk
At a time when the sovereign debt crisis places ‘the Eurozone’, the European monetary union project in jeopardy, China is being encouraged to lend a supporting hand of up to US$100 billion. However, confidence in Beijing’s ability to manage its own finances despite its huge wealth has been shaken by a series of bad news about the nation’s private enterprises and its labyrinthine underground banking system in recent months that could put any international faith in any Chinese led bailout in difficulty itself. To summarise a turbulent week from a Greek financial perspective, despite a previous agreement struck between global economic powers, a counter move was launched by the Greeks on 01 November 2011, to hold a referendum into the legality of adopting them. George Papandreou’s stunning announcement of non-interference has thrown the Eurozone back into turmoil may bring down his government and hasten the end of his political career. Global markets slid as a result of the announcement amid fears the Greek bailout deal would collapse, but the worst affected were the Asian markets especially due to the price of the Chinese currency, the Yuan, which had dramatically strengthened in the approach to a deal and fell as a result.
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Posted by Spoons on 20 Oct 2011 in Corruption, Eastern Europe, Political Risk
Deputy Interior Minister Sergei Bulavin declared in an address to the State Duma on 19 October 2011, that the average bribe in cases investigated by police now stands at 250,000 rubbles (US$8000). He broke the news whilst presenting a bill to speed up the return of money extorted from businessmen. The proposed legislation would see a change to the law which currently sees businessmen who report bribery to the authorities having to provide their own money for sting operations due to a lack of funds for police. The issue being that once the money has been used in an operation it officially becomes evidence and can get stuck in bureaucratic limbo for the length of the investigation which can sometimes take years. According to Bulavin, this new legislation would make it possible for the authorities to return the funds before a case has reached its conclusion. He added that this burden can be significant for individuals involved in some of the larger cases where it is common for the bribes to be up to six times the US$8000 average.
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Posted by Spoons on 14 Oct 2011 in Corruption, Eastern Europe, Organised Crime, Political Risk
The recent anti-Roma protests throughout Bulgaria and in particular in the capital, Sofia, saw the familiar spectre of an underlying growing support for right wing political parties and social movements since the fall of Communism rear its head again in Eastern Europe. However, to explain these protests on an outbreak of racist and nationalist feeling would not only be tarring all protesters with the same tainted brush, but would also dramatically oversimplify the issue and ignore the desperately poor region’s crippling and endemic issues of unemployment, organised crime and corruption.
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Posted by Spoons on 23 Sep 2011 in Eastern Europe, Political Risk
In a move consistent with China’s current penchant for getting involved with European countries facing economic woe, Beijing has announced on 17 September 2011, that they will be supplying a US$1 billion loan to Belarus. Despite, the relatively substantial amount however, this only amounts to a lifeline for the countries ailing economy and will by no means be enough to stabilise Belarus’s economic situation. In addition, the move is unlikely to be met with much enthusiasm from Western nations, particularly as a loan for US$8 billion requested from the IMF is looking unlikely due to a lack of structural reforms and fears that it will prop up what the US described as Europe’s last dictatorship.
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