Posted by Josephine on 20 Feb 2012 in Africa, Blog, Elections, Middle East, Political Risk
Thousands of people took to the streets in cities across Libya, waving their arms, shouting and singing as fireworks blasted in the skies. Gone were the monochromatic green flags of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, instead, in the hands of most citizens, were the red, black and green colours of post-Gaddafi Libya. The bold new tri-coloured flag, which features a white crescent moon and star in the centre, is, in effect, the symbol of a bold, new Libya. Only one year after the bogeyman himself, the now deceased Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, initiated a bloody crackdown against his own people which left more than 200 dead in a single day in Benghazi on 20 February 2012, Libyans are now enjoying something they have not experienced in nearly half a century: freedom.
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Posted by Desmond on 10 Feb 2012 in Blog, East Asia, Elections, Organised Crime, Political Risk
In a week when Indonesia’s powerhouse economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter of 2011 (with Indonesian GDP figures now surpassing 6.5%), Indonesia has already set about reshaping its economy from one primarily based on low value-added sectors, such as raw material exports, to a more modern economy as a processor of its natural resources with higher domestic consumption not reliant on government subsidies. This process although pledged by the Democratic Party (PD) led by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in his election campaign ahead of the April 2009 polls, is a path which was not expected to be embarked on fully until at least 2015. It is possible that following Yudhoyono’s re-election in the July 2011 presidential elections, and that the next elections are scheduled to be held in 2014, that he is seeking to attract greater foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia as one of the primary means for funding this transition.
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Posted by Desmond on 26 Jan 2012 in Africa, Blog, Elections, Middle East, Political Risk
Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh finally left office and Yemeni territory for the US and much needed medical treatment on 22 January 2012, following the long drawn out power transition to his deputy Abd-Rabbu Mansour al-Hadi. In a speech designed for maximum impact, and held on the runway of Sana’a International Airport as he was about to board an aircraft and marking the symbolic end to his thirty-three year rule, Saleh vowed to return to the country for the presidential swearing-in ceremony. Also if reports are to be believed, after he has received treatment to injuries sustained to him in the June 2011 attempt on his life, Saleh is planning to base himself in neighbouring Oman as he plans for his political comeback in opposition. This proposal to pursue politics as an ‘opposition figure’ is likely to keep tensions exacerbated in the lead-up to presidential elections, currently scheduled for 21 February 2012
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Posted by Desmond on 20 Jan 2012 in Blog, Elections, Middle East, Political Risk
Results for the third stage of the lower house of parliament elections are due to be announced on 21 January 2012, with the first stage of Upper House elections set to begin on 29 January 2012. As a result of the overwhelming endorsement of the Freedom and Justice Party’s (FJP) Islamist agenda in the first two stages the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) will in effect control close to half the seats in the new Egyptian parliament. According to a projection posted by the group on 13 January 2012, the few remaining seats will be parcelled out among liberals, independents, politicians formerly linked to the Mubarak era, and other groups including those which played a role in triggering the revolt against Mubarak. Results of the third round of voting are expected to mirror this trend, which would give both the FJP and al-Nour a combined majority in parliament. Al-Nour’s role will depend on a political relationship with the FJP especially as the FJP previously insisted that would not form a coalition with al-Nour, and that the FJP in the ascendency). On 16 January 2012, the FJP claimed that Egyptian political parties will back proposing its Secretary-General Mohamed al-Katatni for the assembly’s speaker with the two deputy speaker posts going to al-Nour Party, runners up in the vote, and the liberal Wafd Party, one of the next biggest groups; an immediate move to placate al-Nour ahead of parliament gathering for its first session on 23 January 2012. However, in an interesting development, which could show a direct correlation to each other’s interests in the future of Egypt, a leading member of the MB has claimed that the FJP would accept that members of the ruling military council be granted immunity from legal or criminal liability to guarantee a peaceful handover of power and avoid “trouble” in the sense of escalation in violence and instability. Although the official was quick to add that the MB were not advocating such a scenario, but if other political forces were in agreement, they would support the idea including compensating the families of the martyrs. The controversial statement has already led to more accusations of cosying up to the ruling military council in order for a future FJP led parliament to secure military backing. Looking ahead to the future make-up of the Egyptian parliament, the FJP will need to balance the interests of the SCAF with those of the Salafists. Its relationship with al-Nour is key especially as the MB and the Egyptian Salafists represent different segments of Egyptian society and are historical rivals. Despite these tensions, the FJP may find it beneficial to come to a political middle ground with the Salafists, offering al-Nour political concessions.
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Posted by Spoons on 16 Jan 2012 in Blog, Eastern Europe, Elections, Political Risk
The Romanian Government has called an emergency meeting following four days of unrest, the worst in around twenty years, and which some analysts are predicting could bring down the current Government. Although the largest and most violent protests have been concentrated in the capital Bucharest, actions are believed to have been staged in around forty towns in the country, prompting fears that the Government’s perceived inability in solving Romania’s festering economic crisis could gain enough support to have a significant impact on the form of the current government.
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Posted by Desmond on 13 Jan 2012 in Blog, Elections, Middle East, Military Activity, Political Risk
The southern Philippines has long been a breeding ground for terrorist activity primarily linked to kidnap for ransom with militant organisations like the Abu Sayyaf Group and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) operating in the Sulu archipelago and easternmost island of Mindanao, where a rugged terrain, weak rule of law, sense of grievance among the country’s Muslim minority, and poverty make it difficult for the government to root them out. In recent years, some regional governments, particularly the Philippine Government, has made significant progress in combating terrorism, due in part to counterterrorism aid provided by the US, however, experts are concerned by what appears to be increasing cooperation among the Abu Sayyaf Group, several major MILF commands, and elements of the Southeast Asian terror group Jemaah Islamiyah (JI). Counterterrorism progress in the region remains difficult, and the Philippines remains vulnerable to penetration by extremist networks like al Qaeda, as a result the question posed here is whether South East Asia is becoming the new terrorist safe haven following the purging of al Qaeda form Afghanistan, Pakistan border areas, the Maghreb and from training camps in Yemen.
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