The wild, remote and beautiful Sinai region has long been known for its lawlessness, having historically served as a key focal point for smuggling routes. Today, however, it is an active war-zone, especially in the north, where hardened Islamist militants battle almost daily against the Egyptian security forces. One of the primary fighting groups in the Sinai, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis (ABM), has come into the limelight in recent months, quickly becoming recognised as the dominant extremist group in the area. This increased prominence can be attributed in part to its alleged involvement in a number of spectacular terrorist attacks, which are distinctly notable for the fact that they have occurred in the populous Nile Delta, far away from ABM’s strongholds in the mountains and deserts of the Sinai. ABM has gone from relative obscurity to becoming almost a household name, particularly amongst the international media fraternity, so it is important to assess just who this shadowy movement is, and where they have come from, seemingly so suddenly.read more
More than four months after its official deadline passed, the Final Plenary Session of Yemen’s National Dialogue Conference (NDC) was held on 21 January 2014, and the framework from which the new Yemeni constitution will be constructed was agreed. With the official closing ceremony slated to be held on 25 January 2014, the details of the framework document are widely anticipated. A federal system for the future Yemeni state has been agreed upon, although how the country will be divided is still heatedly disputed. It is also expected that the Cabinet will be reorganised, and the Shura Council restructured to comprise equal numbers of representatives from the north and the south. The final session also saw delegates voting to allow President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi to remain in power beyond the two-year term that he was elected for in February 2012. While many sources have reported that the decision extends his term by one year, the vote will ultimately secure Hadi’s position until another President is elected after the new constitution has been drafted and approved. Despite being lauded as a monumental success, however, the closing of the NDC comes amid a rapidly deteriorating security situation in most of the country, with very few substantive steps having been taken to resolve the underlying conflicts and grievances among the population. As the international community rushes to congratulate Yemen on its achievement, the government appears to be ignoring a host of factors which not only undermine the legitimacy of the framework document, but will also make its implementation a Sisyphean task.
There is no overarching theme in Libya – that is, unless you count the effect political paralysis in Tripoli has on the country’s numerous security problems. The longer Prime Minister Ali Zeidan remains isolated, and the General National Congress (GNC) can override his wishes, the longer the Libyan Government will remain unable to brave the endless oil blockades in the East, as well as terrorism, assassinations and intertribal clashes. In fact, the continued political stalemate in Tripoli, as well as the tendency of authorities to divert attention toward the supposed threats of Muammar Gaddafi’s ghost, has only exacerbated these problems.
Between 14-15 January 2014, Egypt finally began the process of giving recent legislative changes, formed by the army backed interim government, a chance to be put to public referendum. The first test was to see the new constitution being passed, giving legitimacy to the June 2013 ousting of unpopular former President Mohamed Morsi after mass uprisings, other aims were to set a benchmark for future polls. With the likely intent of seeing an army backed candidate run and win the presidential elections. Parties allied to the army’s future roadmap for stability will in turn attempt a similar win in parliamentary polls before the years end but likely in the Summer of 2014. All of which defined in the constitution as having to be achieved in the space of 6 months of the referendum. Before polls opened an explosion occurred outside a Criminal Court on Sudan Street in the Imbaba area of North Giza. What that incident does illustrate is the current trend of further encroachment into Greater Cairo by militant groups or lone wolves intent on using violent direct action against police, government, military, infrastructure or legal targets. The eastern Nasr City district remains the current focus of terror incidents in Greater Cairo with eleven high profile blasts in four months. How does this threat manifest itself across the capital in the short term? And what affect will successful transition from interim military led rule, to democratic accountability, mean for the future of Egypt and its affect on the terror environment?read more
Today Algeria will mark the one-year anniversary of the devastating attack on the Tigantourine gas complex In Aménas, which left sixty-seven people killed, thirty-seven of whom were foreign nationals. This is a sad, but fitting timeline as international energy giants prepare to make a full return to the region. Whilst the day will likely go ahead without much fanfare, sombre reflection is expected among Algerian leaders, who are growing increasingly concerned about their country’s ability to put a stop to the tide of militancy that has swept the region in the wake of the 2011 uprisings. Meanwhile, foreign energy workers are likely to continue to press the government in Algiers for a greater security response, and present some tough inquiries to their Algerian partners. One question, in particular, remains: what, exactly, are Algerian authorities doing to quash fears of another terror attack?
For the second time since the ouster of former President Hosni Mubarak in January 2011, Egyptians will participate in a constitutional referendum, during a time of rising concern over the wave of violence seen in recent months in the turbulent nation. However, it is doubtful that these recurrent attacks will greatly affect the numbers of Egyptians turning out for the vote, as many Egyptians consider the adoption of the draft constitution to be a step in the right direction, towards the eventual goal of political and economic stability and security. Whichever way the referendum turns out, it is an important moment in the country’s history, and is likely to have significant impacts that will be felt by citizens at all levels of Egypt, as well as those in the international business sector.read more