Posted by Richard Cochrane on 17 Jun 2011 in Natural Disasters, Political Risk
Scientific American produced a thought-provoking interactive presentation last month called ’12 events that will change everything’. The feature covers twelve possible events that could shape the future of humanity, for good and for ill, from asteroid impacts to machine sentience. With our often myopic focus on current events and narrow political trends, the dynamic systems and discoveries that will shape our future tend to rumble on in the background until they explode to the fore with consequences that could have been anticipated if only we had paid attention. This is not to dismiss the importance of knowing what is going on in the here and now so as to shape critical tactical decision making, but it is always advantageous to take a step-back from current affairs and consider the bigger picture.
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Posted by Richard Cochrane on 21 Mar 2011 in Natural Disasters, Political Risk
In triage, the patient with the most serious injury takes priority. This means walking past those who are clearly in distress to those who are quiet; those who can complain about their injuries are conscious and can usually wait, those who are silent may be in considerably greater peril. When this way of responding to an emergency is calmly and rationally considered, it makes a great deal of sense. Unfortunately, calm and rational assessment is something that has been sorely lacking in the media response to the recent disaster that struck Japan.
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Posted by Christian Earl on 14 Mar 2011 in East Asia, Natural Disasters, Political Risk, South Asia
An explosion occurred at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant’s number three reactor on 14 March 2011, creating fears of a nuclear meltdown and a triple whammy of disaster headaches only four days after the 9.0-magnitude Tohoku earthquake first hit Japan on 10 March 2011 and was followed by one of the most powerful tsunami in history, which caused scenes of unimaginable destruction in northeast Japan. The incident compounded disaster relief and humanitarian assistance efforts along the Eastern seaboard of Japan, which government officials estimate has resulted in over 1,800 deaths and caused at least 10,000 people to be classed as ‘missing’ or ‘unaccounted for’. The situation in Japan remains dire as reports emerge that fuel rods at the Fukushima reactor number two are now “fully exposed”, and Prime Minister Naoto Kan has declared the incident the worst disaster since World War II, calling for national unity to survive the crisis and build a “new Japan.” Kan has raised the size of the Japanese Self-Defence Forces response to 100,000 people to deal with the crisis and introduced rolling blackouts on 14 March 2011, to ensure electricity supply to Tokyo, which is at 80% capacity after eleven of Japan’s fifty-four nuclear reactors were closed. A large number of industries, including car and auto parts plants, semiconductor fabricators and steel mills, have halted production for unspecified time frames as a result.
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Posted by Charlotte Ingham on 12 Mar 2011 in East Asia, Natural Disasters, Political Risk
(Picture – Earthquakes of a magnitude of 5 or above which occurred globally in the past twelve months)
With the devastating earthquake in Japan and the ensuing tsunami, coming just weeks after a hugely damaging quake in Christchurch and just over a year after earthquakes of historic proportions in Haiti and Chile, the recent spate of natural disasters continues unabated. We took the opportunity to look at the implications of both the disaster in Japan, and also to recommend some basic precautions those operating in earthquake zones can take.
According to reports, 2010 was the second worst year since 1980 for natural disasters. There were 950 natural disasters recorded, beginning with the Haiti earthquake and including the Icelandic volcano, the Russian heatwave, the floods in Pakistan and an increase in the strength of the US hurricane season. The reasons for the high frequency of natural disasters, which has extended into 2011, appear to be myriad, and highly contentious, in particular when it comes to theories related to the impact of climate change (if it’s happening, how is it happening, is it part of a natural cycle, is man responsible…?), or whether a “supermoon” can cause an earthquake. Irrespective of the causes however, the challenges remain the same. In some respects, our capacity to deal with such disasters has never been greater, we can build “earthquake proof” buildings, design early warning systems, improve emergency response times and the equipment we use to rescue people when the very worst does happen. However in other respects, we have rarely been so vulnerable: population density in the world’s major cities has increased dramatically, increasing the potential toll. In addition to this, the impact of a disaster is increasingly felt across the globe: as the world gets smaller, we travel more, businesses outsource, their customers as well as their suppliers are increasingly overseas. Consider the following:
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Posted by Annushka on 25 Aug 2010 in Corruption, Natural Disasters, Political Risk, South Asia
The humanitarian disaster in Pakistan has been in the news for several weeks running, and rightly so – the scale of the tragedy is almost unimaginable without geographical comparisons, collective and individual stories that are told. Estimates about the potential future effects of waterborne diseases are also very important, as the implications of what is already a huge catastrophe are expected to last for considerable time. In this post, however, we wanted to look beyond the immediate effects of the floods and concentrate on strategic implications of the disaster, even though many of the scenarios mentioned are still unravelling and there is much uncertainty pertaining to their potential effects.
A recent article written by the Director of India’s Institute for Topical Studies in Chennai offers a useful framework for analysis in this case, though it is acknowledged that generally speaking Indian think-tanks may not be the most dispassionate sources of information on Pakistan. Nonetheless, the Institute is right in pointing out that several factors are worth considering:
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Posted by Richard Cochrane on 20 Apr 2010 in Natural Disasters, Political Risk
Every so often nature conspires to challenge humanity’s assumptions about the world in which we live, and forces a reconsideration of the balance between man, machine and the state of nature. An example of this might be the recent (and continuing) eruption of the Eyjafjallajoekull volcano in Iceland that has forced the closure of European airspace and an unprecedented level of disruption to global travel. Throughout history, people sought to explain the natural world in familiar terms, anthropomorphising the untameable so as to worship and attempt to placate it. In ancient Egypt, the Sun was thought to be the embodiment of the Sun God Ra, for what else but a god could control day and night, and provide the warmth and light essential for all life. For the ancient Greeks, Poseidon was lord of the seas and the depths, and His will dictated the fate of mariners and fishermen. Vulcan was the Roman god of fire, living within Mount Etna in Sicily, making his anger felt through volcanic eruptions and plumes of fire and ash. For most people, this connection with a benevolent or vengeful god made little difference to how they lived. Sailors could drown horses as a sacrifice to Poseidon, but this did not ensure a safe journey across the waves.
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