Organised Crime

PLAYING THE “GADDAFI CARD”: A LOOK INTO THE CURRENT LIBYAN CRISIS

PLAYING THE “GADDAFI CARD”: A LOOK INTO THE CURRENT LIBYAN CRISIS

There is no overarching theme in Libya – that is, unless you count the effect political paralysis in Tripoli has on the country’s numerous security problems. The longer Prime Minister Ali Zeidan remains isolated, and the General National Congress (GNC) can override his wishes, the longer the Libyan Government will remain unable to brave the endless oil blockades in the East, as well as terrorism, assassinations and intertribal clashes. In fact, the continued political stalemate in Tripoli, as well as the tendency of authorities to divert attention toward the supposed threats of Muammar Gaddafi’s ghost, has only exacerbated these problems.

read more

FRANKENSTEIN’S MONSTER: PEÑA NIETO AND THE FUERZAS AUTODEFENSAS

FRANKENSTEIN’S MONSTER: PEÑA NIETO AND THE FUERZAS AUTODEFENSAS

Analogies of Frankenstein’s monster have been invoked as Mexican federal forces descend on Michoacán state to prevent vigilante self-defence groups from confronting the Knights Templar drug cartel in Apatzingan city. A threat to security which both the previous and current administrations had a hand in creating, the sudden advance of the self-defence groups has presented Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto with a complex challenge that puts his ambitious plans for reform in jeopardy.

Fuerzas autodefensas – self-defence forces – have featured in rural Mexico for decades, but began to emerge and spread with disquieting frequency in the latter half of 2013. The phenomenon has drawn increased attention, both from the Mexican government and the international community, in the early weeks of 2014, as the rapid vigilante advances seen in Michoacán state have raised concerns that the groups will tip the region over the edge from simmering violence into all-out war. 

read more

ONE YEAR AFTER THE IN AMÉNAS SIEGE: ARE THE RIGHT QUESTIONS BEING ASKED IN ALGERIA?

ONE YEAR AFTER THE IN AMÉNAS SIEGE: ARE THE RIGHT QUESTIONS BEING ASKED IN ALGERIA?

Today Algeria will mark the one-year anniversary of the devastating attack on the Tigantourine gas complex In Aménas, which left sixty-seven people killed, thirty-seven of whom were foreign nationals. This is a sad, but fitting timeline as international energy giants prepare to make a full return to the region. Whilst the day will likely go ahead without much fanfare, sombre reflection is expected among Algerian leaders, who are growing increasingly concerned about their country’s ability to put a stop to the tide of militancy that has swept the region in the wake of the 2011 uprisings. Meanwhile, foreign energy workers are likely to continue to press the government in Algiers for a greater security response, and present some tough inquiries to their Algerian partners. One question, in particular, remains: what, exactly, are Algerian authorities doing to quash fears of another terror attack?

read more

WEST AFRICA FORECAST FOR 2014

WEST AFRICA FORECAST FOR 2014

This week, The Inkerman Group had the privilege of providing interested investors and avid followers of African development with insight and analysis as part of Reuters Trading Africa Forum. Discussions centred on West Africa, one of the world’s most exciting emerging markets. Below were some of the highlights:

read more

TUNISIA AND THE IMF: LOANS WITH AMERICAN STRINGS ATTACHED?

TUNISIA AND THE IMF: LOANS WITH AMERICAN STRINGS ATTACHED?

Worry over Tunisia’s long-term prospects grew this week, after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on 02 December 2013, that the country would continue to suffer from loan delays, unless it ameliorates both its budget deficit problems and its security situation. The announcement, which came in the form of a statement made by mission chief Amine Mati, also reiterated the concerns of foreign investors, noting that there remains a “wait-and-see” approach to interest in Tunisia.

The IMF has arguably exacerbated the North African nation’s Catch-22 scenario. With dwindling investments, comes a declining economy. As the economy spirals, so too do the jobs numbers. The lack of occupational opportunities, particularly those for young men, has led to a greater attraction toward extremist groups among individuals who feel marginalised and without purpose. This has led to an apparent surge in applicants interested in Ansar al Sharia, an organisation which, aside from being blamed on the 2012 attack on the US mission in Libya, has also been accused of planting hundreds of homemade explosive devices near Mount Chaambi.

This has not stopped the IMF from trying. As recently as 07 June 2013, the international organisation approved a grant of US$1.74 billion, US$150.2 million of which had already been dispersed to Tunisia that same month. The IMF even promised further instalments – security permitting – over the next two years at the enviably low interest rate of 1.08%. Two sweeten the deal, in June 2013 it announced that Tunisia would not have to start paying back the loans until 2018. So why amid this cycle of violence-turned-investor retreat, does the IMF seem so adamant about supporting Tunisia? The answer may be found within the halls of Washington, DC.

read more

LIBYA’S MILITIAS: A GUIDE

LIBYA’S MILITIAS: A GUIDE

This week’s sporadic violence in Benghazi has led international investors to examine whether to place their bets on Libya due to security fears. The truth, however, is that many foreign nationals had already withdrawn their personnel following Tripoli’s mid-November militia battles. The decision to remove foreign staff is attributed to the deeply unpredictable situation that has developed in Libya. To that end, The Inkerman Group has noted the emergence of a delicate militia ecosystem, where some 1700 brigades balance out the power of their rivals, and ultimately, the power of the central authority: the administration of Prime Minister Ali Zeidan and the General National Congress (GNC). This system is borne out of forty-two years of the absolute central command led by deceased dictator, Muammar Gaddafi, who controlled the lives of millions of Libyans. After decades of tyrannical abuse, it is perhaps understandable that Libyans, particularly those Islamists who felt marginalised under Gaddafi, or moderates who fought against the regime in 2011, would be reluctant to step away from their comfort zones – the brigades – and hand over their weapons to the administration of PM Zeidan. Indeed, whether the Libyan leader is Zeidan or Gaddafi matters not. Centrally controlled rule is frightening for many Libyans – a sentiment perhaps most understood by residents in the East who have been calling for more autonomy.

read more