Organised Crime

BULGARIAN UNREST: RISE OF THE RIGHT OR CORRUPTION FATIGUE?

Posted by Spoons on 14 Oct 2011 in Corruption, Eastern Europe, Organised Crime, Political Risk

The recent anti-Roma protests throughout Bulgaria and in particular in the capital, Sofia, saw the familiar spectre of  an underlying  growing support for right wing political parties and social movements since the fall of Communism rear its head again in Eastern Europe. However, to explain these protests on an outbreak of racist and nationalist feeling would not only be tarring all protesters with the same tainted brush, but would also dramatically oversimplify the issue and ignore  the desperately poor region’s crippling and endemic issues of unemployment, organised crime and corruption.

AFGHANISTAN – TEN YEARS ON

Posted by Charlie on 10 Oct 2011 in Afghanistan, Corruption, IEDs, Military Activity, Organised Crime, Political Risk, South Asia, Taliban

On 07 October 2011, the world reluctantly marked the tenth anniversary of the war in Afghanistan, as concerns persist over the prospects for “lasting” security for the Afghan people once ISAF forces withdraw in 2014. Reflecting on the challenges facing the country, on 06 October 2011, retired US Army General Stanley McChrystal, who commanded coalition forces in the country in 2009 – 2010 (before being controversially forced to resign following a magazine article in which it was considered that he had criticised President Barack Obama), said in an address to the Council on Foreign Relations: “We didn’t know enough and we still don’t know enough…Most of us — me included — had a very superficial understanding of the situation and history, and we had a frighteningly simplistic view of recent history, the last 50 years.” McChrystal noted that of the remaining tasks to be accomplished in the country, the most difficult may be to create a legitimate government that ordinary Afghans can believe in and that can serve as a counterweight to the Taliban.

Here we look at the current situation in Afghanistan, reflecting on changing Taliban tactics in response to ongoing ISAF operations, and highlighting that while the ISAF is making some progress, the Taliban is proving itself to be a resilient enemy. Of particular concern is the view that, while an opportunity may be being created, the country is not in a position to capitalise upon this because the government is yet to inspire the confidence of the people.

MEXICAN CARTELS TARGET “INTERNET SNITCHES” TO PROTECT THEIR OPERATIONS

Posted by Charlie on 19 Sep 2011 in Latin America, Organised Crime, Political Risk

As detailed in the Inkerman Political Risk and Security Review on 23 August 2011, people across Latin America are increasingly relying upon social networks to report and monitor crime. WikiCrimes in Brazil, and similar initiatives in Venezuela (VicTEAMS), Mexico (online crime map of Mexico City created by El Universal), Argentina (“map of insecurity” for Buenos Aires), Panama and Chile, provide interactive maps that people can use to anonymously report crimes, describe what happened and pinpoint the location. In this way, crime mapping identifies “danger zones” within a region with generally high crime rates (according to a 2010 Citizen Security and Human Rights report, Latin America is the region with the highest average murder rate in the world: 25.6 per 100,000 of the population), to enhance people’s awareness, preparedness and safety. However, the recent murder of two bloggers in Mexico who were apparently the victims of the cartels they sought to inform their fellow citizens about may well serve to undermine such efforts. It also represents the latest example of the seemingly limitless depths of depravity to which members of the cartels are prepared to sink in order to protect their operations.

AUTHORITIES CHANGE TACTICS AS THE SECURITY SITUATION IN COLOMBIA DETERIORATES

Posted by Charlie on 15 Aug 2011 in Latin America, Organised Crime, Political Risk

Following reports over recent months which suggest that the long improving security situation in Colombia is taking a turn for the worse, President Juan Manuel Santos has announced an “overhaul” of security doctrine. The security situation in Colombia has improved dramatically from the low point of the late 1990s, when the country became synonymous with cartels and kidnapping. However, in recent months, there appears to have been something of a reversal in what, until now, had been a steady rate of improvement. The deterioration can be attributed both to new tactics adopted by both the threat of Marxist rebel groups the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN), and also the increasing threat posed by narco-paramilitary gangs.

THREAT OF ISLAMIST FUNDAMENTALISM IN THE EU: IS IT ON THE DECLINE?

Posted by Rogan on 3 Aug 2011 in Organised Crime, Political Risk

Due to the actions of Anders Breivik on 22 July 2011 there has been a great shift in focus of the general public towards the development of political extremism in the EU and the resulting terrorist threat. However is this shift of focus entirely justified? Is the threat of Islamic fundamentalism within the EU really decreasing? We are at a point where the worldwide threat of a terrorist attack is at its highest level yet which bearer of the marker ‘terrorist’ should be more concerned about? Islamist terrorist groups are changing in composition and leadership, with men like Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, the new leader of al-Qaeda in the Arabic Peninsula (AQAP), presenting a new frontier for Islamic fundamentalism.

CARTEL ACTIVITY TAKES ITS TOLL AS BUSINESSES BEGIN TO DESERT PARTS OF MONTERREY

Posted by Charlie on 8 Jul 2011 in Corruption, Latin America, Organised Crime, Political Risk

In the September 2010 blog post “The Cost of Cartels: An increase in violence in Monterrey”, we profiled the deteriorating security situation in Mexico’s industrial capital and predicted that if there was not a significant improvement there was a very real possibility of a mass exodus of business from the city. Statistics released this week suggest that this has come to pass, with some 30 – 40% of businesses located in the city’s centro histórico having closed in the face of extortion demands which, according to the report, amount to a staggering 20-30% of business’ sales. The situation in Monterrey continues to underscore both how rapidly the situation in once safe parts of the country can deteriorate in the face of the changing geographical scope of cartel operations, as well as the economic toll the blight of organised crime is taking.