Posted by Spoons on 20 Feb 2012 in Blog, Corruption, Cyber Crime, Organised Crime, Political Risk
Companies operating in the modern business environment face an array of ever more sophisticated traditional and contemporary threats. One of the most pervasive risks is fraud, which now constitutes an intrinsic component of a wide range of ever expanding criminal activity. Keeping abreast of the latest incidents in the world of fraud is, therefore, becoming an increasingly difficult yet essential part of both current and future operations. With this in mind, the Inkerman Group have created the ‘Fraud Weekly’ a new free email which offers subscribers a timely snapshot of the week’s most interesting and important developments. If you are interested in subscribing to this essential publication please contact marketing@inkerman.com
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Posted by Josephine on 20 Feb 2012 in Africa, Blog, Elections, Middle East, Political Risk
Thousands of people took to the streets in cities across Libya, waving their arms, shouting and singing as fireworks blasted in the skies. Gone were the monochromatic green flags of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, instead, in the hands of most citizens, were the red, black and green colours of post-Gaddafi Libya. The bold new tri-coloured flag, which features a white crescent moon and star in the centre, is, in effect, the symbol of a bold, new Libya. Only one year after the bogeyman himself, the now deceased Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, initiated a bloody crackdown against his own people which left more than 200 dead in a single day in Benghazi on 20 February 2012, Libyans are now enjoying something they have not experienced in nearly half a century: freedom.
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Posted by Desmond on 17 Feb 2012 in Blog, Middle East, Military Activity, Political Risk
President Bashar al-Assad declared that a referendum will take place in Syria on 26 February 2012, on a draft constitution aimed at establishing political pluralism challenging the Article 8 principle which enshrines his Baath party’s dominant role. The new referendum move is unlikely to appease the movement against him, which began with street demonstrations by civilians but now includes an armed insurrection by the Free Syrian Army made up mainly of army defectors. While constitution amendments were a key opposition demand, most opposition groups say they will now only accept the resignation of President Assad. Moreover, as the levels of violence have intensified it appears that this apparent concession is aimed at appeasing certain elements of the international community that Syria is able to govern its own affairs, ticking Russian and Chinese boxes over non-interference and against implementing any further sanctions. It appears that at this stage of the eleven month crackdown, al-Assad is seeking to offer insubstantial compromises rather than agreeing to dismantle his fifty-year old police state dominated by members of his Alawite sect that keeps him in power. Moreover, it seems improbable that al-Assad will ever be able to govern a united Syria in the future after bombarding his own cities and towns. He is escalating the use of his military might either to sink Syria into chaos or to improve his negotiating position. Militarily he cannot win.
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Posted by Josephine on 13 Feb 2012 in Africa, Blog, Military Activity, Political Risk
Proving that no supposedly good deed goes unpunished, the ousting of Gaddafi has arguably led to further security problems across the Sahel as new revolutionary groups are emerging in the months following the end of the Libyan uprising, thanks in large part to an almost never ending supply of weapons. Underscoring just how widespread this problem is, on 26 January 2012, the UN released a report indicating that militant groups in Africa’s Sahel region, including Nigerian-based Islamic terror organisation, Boko Haram, and al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), now have access to thousands of arms that are thought to have originated from the late dictator Muammar Gaddafi’s vast weapons caches. The Inkerman Group already noted this problem back in October 2011, as reports indicated that at least 10,000 surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) had made their way across the Sahel, whilst other weapons from Libya were spotted as far away Somalia. Just how problematic the fall of Gaddafi is for the security of Africa still remains to be seen. Nevertheless, his ouster has already had unintended consequences in Mali, Niger, Chad, and Mauritania, as nomadic tribes, who previously fought alongside the Libyan dictator thanks to his years of support, are now wreaking havoc across the region.
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Posted by Desmond on 10 Feb 2012 in Blog, East Asia, Elections, Organised Crime, Political Risk
In a week when Indonesia’s powerhouse economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter of 2011 (with Indonesian GDP figures now surpassing 6.5%), Indonesia has already set about reshaping its economy from one primarily based on low value-added sectors, such as raw material exports, to a more modern economy as a processor of its natural resources with higher domestic consumption not reliant on government subsidies. This process although pledged by the Democratic Party (PD) led by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in his election campaign ahead of the April 2009 polls, is a path which was not expected to be embarked on fully until at least 2015. It is possible that following Yudhoyono’s re-election in the July 2011 presidential elections, and that the next elections are scheduled to be held in 2014, that he is seeking to attract greater foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia as one of the primary means for funding this transition.
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Posted by Spoons on 9 Feb 2012 in Blog, Central Asia, Corruption, Organised Crime, Political Risk
It appears that a hunger strike which swept through Kyrgyzstan’s prison population, following a riot at a Bishkek holding facility on 16 January 2012, has all but come to an end. There have been reports that during the strike, as many as 6,000 of the country’s 9,000 prison population refused food, and as many as 2,000 sewed their mouths shut. Now that the action appears to have come to an end, rumours have been circulating as to the genuine reason behind the protests which officially came as part of a general demand for better living conditions for inmates. The most common recurring theory being that the inmates have been acting purely on the “orders” of organised criminals both inside and outside the prison walls. If true, this revelation highlights just how entrenched and pervasive organised crime is within the former soviet country and is a perfect example of how complex a challenge tackling it can be for the state.
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