Revolution

TERROR IN TRIPOLI: MILITANTS CAPITALISE ON LIBYA’S DISJOINTED SECURITY SYSTEM

Posted by Cassie Blombaum on 24 Apr 2013 in Africa, Business Risk, Energy, Exploration, IEDs, Libya, Military Activity, Political Risk, Revolution

(Image provided by Inkerman personnel)

A sense of anxiety permeates the air in Libya, with citizens and foreign nationals expressing unease over the Maghreb nation’s deteriorating security condition. As can be expected, Libyans remain apprehensive with regard to the ability of the government to safeguard residents following another high-profile attack in a major city. This time, however, the attack did not occur in terror-prone Benghazi. It occurred in the comparatively safer capital of Tripoli, leading worried foreign interests to reconsider whether they should maintain a presence in Libya at all.

VIOLENT PROTESTS INCREASE ACROSS BAHRAIN AHEAD OF GULF AIR F1 RACE

Posted by Christian Earl on 19 Apr 2013 in Bahrain, Business Risk, GCC, IEDs, Middle East, Military Activity, Political Risk, Revolution

As a massive popular protest begins in the west of Bahrain’s capital Manama on 19 April 2013, the Bahrain International Circuit Chairman Zayed Alzayani claimed that this weekend’s Grand Prix will take place in safety, despite an uptick of protest action that has greeted Formula One’s arrival in the Gulf kingdom since 12 April 2013. “I personally think it’s safe to do the race, there is no problem… We have 5% who don’t like it but the majority do–and we cater for the majority” he told reporters at the Manama circuit. Alzayani’s claims came after Bahrain riot police fired tear gas and stun grenades at protesters during the evening of 18 April 2013, after some elements of a violent protest hurled Molotov Cocktails at security lines during protests against the staging of the race. The Formula One race has become a significant event in the Bahraini uprising after it was cancelled following the first large scale protests in 2011. In the lead up to the 2012 race, protesters even threw petrol bombs at mechanics from Force India, a Formula One racing team. According to the Bahraini opposition, numerous opposition leaders have also been arrested, or detained without charges in the past week all in what they term is an attempt by the government to avoid the negative publicity that surrounded last year’s race. However, the protests have continued nonetheless and demonstrations have turned increasingly violent. All of which has increased tensions ahead of this race and cast a further negative light on a kingdom struggling to come to terms with a new future after the deaths of eight people in unrest since February 2011.

ROGUE MILITIAS EXPELLED IN LIBYA AS “OPERATION TRIPOLI” INTENSIFIES

Posted by Cassie Blombaum on 19 Mar 2013 in Africa, Business Risk, Kidnap, Libya, Military Activity, Organised Crime, Political Risk, Revolution

The Libyan Government appears to be ‘making good’ on its endless string of promises to finally remove troublesome militias in the capital, as security forces continued with day four of “Operation Tripoli” on 19 March 2013. The operation is part of a concerted effort to dismantle illegitimate armed groups within the city, a top priority for authorities in post-revolutionary Libya who have grown weary over the apparent refusal of some armed groups to relinquish control of buildings in the capital. The plan, which was recently announced by Prime Minister Ali Zidan on 03 March 2013, but orchestrated by Minister of the Interior, Ashur Suleiman Shwayel, is already proving to be successful. Indeed, most Libyans appear to be supportive of the long-awaited measure, a sentiment shared by the hundreds or so number of residents who frequently demonstrate at Maydan ash Shuhada (Martyrs’ Square) in the capital to demand the dissolution of all militias.

So far a number of rogue militias have already ceded control of key buildings in Tripoli’s Gargaresh district, a neighbourhood which, despite being depicted as “Western-friendly”, is considered rife with drug gangs. In addition to raiding buildings in Gargaresh, security forces have also conducted operations near Bab al Azizia, the six-square-kilometre former military strong-hold of deceased dictator Muammar Gaddafi. Meanwhile, government forces also reportedly conducted operations inside local militia headquarters in the southern district of Ain Zara, as well as the eastern Beer Sta Milad neighbourhood near Tajoura, during the early morning hours of 19 March 2013. At time of publication, there have been no reports of injuries or deaths as a result of the ongoing operation. Nevertheless, this is expected to change in the coming days, as both the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the MoI have essentially been given carte blanche to expel armed groups from “more than 500 sites” in Tripoli, alone.

PORT SAID REMAINS ‘EPICENTRE’ OF VIOLENT OPPOSITION TO MORSI’S RULE AS FOOTBALL TRIAL VERDICT APPROACHES AND ELECTION DATE CANCELLED

Posted by Christian Earl on 8 Mar 2013 in Africa, Business Risk, Egypt, Elections, Middle East, Military Activity, Political Risk, Port Said, Revolution

CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE CONTINUES TO SPREAD: NILE DELTA TO CAIRO AHEAD OF 09 MARCH 2013 COURT DATE

“The air still stings from gas but brief calm. Rocks teas gas cartridges + canisters litter area” a tweet posted by a foreign journalist in Port Said at 1000hrs (local) recorded on 08 March 2013. The tweet followed the injury of fifty-four people and the death of a thirty-three year old local resident, Karim Atout, the previous evening, during clashes between locals and Green Eagle ‘Ultra’ fans of the local Port Said football team against the Central Security Forces. Atout became the seventh person to be killed during the past week in the northern restive city (three security officials and four civilians) as reports emerge that the vilified police, and its commanding officers in the Interior Ministry, are attempting to negotiate a truce with the ‘Ultras’ in the city through the defacto ‘ultra’ head Ali Spicy; something which is not expected to yield positive results for either side. Emerging reports at the time of writing may also suggest that most police have left Martyr’s Square in the city after an announcement was made by the Army that it would occupy the Security Directorate building. Twitpics from the area suggest some soldiers assisted protesters to remove a Ministry of Interior flag from the building, whilst others showed some demonstrators mounting tanks and chanting “one hand” in unity with the army.

For the past six days youths wearing surgical masks, dressed in black clad with scarves and hoodies have thrown stones and Molotov cocktails at police lines. They have responded with teargas and stun grenade rounds into streets strewn with rubbish and debris. The primary focus of activism continues to centre around the Port Said Security Directorate building, the al Raswa Customs Port Authority and the Port Said-Ismailia Road. Local businesses and government buildings remain closed as part of a rolling city-wide shutdown. On 07 March 2013, security officials declared that they were increasing protection of the central prison and Suez Canal Authority offices in the days ahead following clashes which prevented some staff of a Suez Canal container company from going to work, however the Suez Canal remains operational.

AS MUSLIM INSURGENTS IN SOUTHERN THAILAND TARGET COMMERCIAL AREAS, IS PHUKET NEXT LOGICAL STEP IN CAMPAIGN?

Posted by Christian Earl on 22 Feb 2013 in Business Risk, East Asia, IEDs, Kidnap, Military Activity, Political Risk, Revolution, Thailand

In a week which saw Thailand’s National Economic and Social Development Board report a nationwide economic expansion of 6.4% (the fastest rate of annual growth since 2003, largely due to the government’s populist polices which enabled Real GDP growth of 18.9% year on year), southern Thailand’s Muslim insurgency entered a new phase which is negatively affecting business risk and could yet impact tourism to key destinations such as Phuket.

THE ARAB SPRING AND THE GCC STATES – WILL THE MONARCHIES SURVIVE?

Posted by Julia Onnasch on 19 Feb 2013 in Bahrain, Business Risk, Egypt, Energy, GCC, Middle East, Political Risk, Revolution, Syria

Over the last two years, under the umbrella of the ‘Arab Spring’, uprisings have coursed through the MENA region and have drastically altered its political landscape. After decades of authoritarian rule, the leaders of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen have all been forced from power, allowing for the introduction of more democratic institutional structures in the respective countries. Meanwhile, Syria continues to face protracted civil resistance as opposition to the regime of President al Assad has plunged the country into a civil war. Whilst the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council have not been left unscathed, they have proven comparatively resilient to the turbulent train of events that has shaken the Arab world since January 2011. With only Bahrain having experienced large-scale protests, the stability and survival of the current monarchic rulers at first glance appears unthreatened. Closer examinations, however, reveal emerging cracks beneath the surface as the economic and political pillars upon which the GCC states have rested are encountering mounting pressures.