South Asia

CHABAHAR: REDEFINING THE AFGHAN GREAT GAME

Posted by Patrick Allen on 17 Jun 2013 in Afghanistan, Central Asia, Iran, Mining, Pakistan, Political Risk, South Asia, Taliban

As the end of NATO-ISAF operations in Afghanistan draws ever-nearer, the important role played by underlying regional power dynamics in defining the future of the region is becoming increasingly clear. Whilst existing diplomatic or military ties are now being challenged and redefined throughout the wider Asian political arena, it is the new set of relationships between India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran that is the most interesting in terms of its potential for wider geopolitical impact.

One of the most widely reported stories on this subject has been that of the Indo-Afghan-Iranian rapprochement and the subsequent agreements regarding the extension of trade routes from Eastern Afghanistan to the Iranian port of Chabahar. Relying on an Indian investment, these improvements would see rail assets extended from the main trunk of the Trans-Iranian Railway to link up the port facilities with the border town of Bam. From here, freight for Afghanistan would transfer to road transport, taking the Indian built road to join up with Afghanistan’s ‘garland highway’ that links all of the country’s major cities.

SUBCONTINENTAL SHAME: A CULTURE OF RAPE?

Posted by Maximilian Hess on 20 Mar 2013 in Political Risk, South Asia

Female travellers are often targeted not solely because of their gender but also because of their perceived wealth, vulnerability, age, race and a host of other factors. Sexual abuse is a far more common occurrence in incidents involving women worldwide but usually racial, religious or political animosities provoke the attack of female travellers, just like male travellers. In India, however, recent events have made clear this is not the case. India’s rape culture, which first sprang into the international limelight following the 16 December 2012, gang-rape of an Indian girl on a New Delhi bus, is brutal and although little publicised, until after the incident, has truly become a national pandemic. The victim in the Delhi bus rape was attacked despite the fact that she was accompanied by a male. Women are usually considered less likely to be targeted for sexual assault when accompanied by men. Not in India.  However, the horrid culture of gang rape and brutal assault on women is not only prevalent in India but throughout the Indian Subcontinent – attacks virtually mimicking the 16 December 2012 Delhi rape have been reported in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and even in the Maldives. On 18 March 2013, three Bangladeshi men in the United Kingdom were charged with the gang rape of a fifteen year old girl. On 15 March 2013, the gang rape of a Swiss tourist, again accompanied by a male – her husband, frightfully demonstrated the pervasiveness of the Indian Subcontinent culture of rape once again. The problem has reached pandemic levels with the number of rapes officially reported having risen 873% from 1971 to 2011 according to the Indian National Crime Record Bureau. The situation can no longer be compared to the proverbial “elephant in the room,” it has dominated regional news since December 2012, but one question remains hidden: why is the proverbial elephant so clearly an Indian elephant?

THE BRICS FALL APART? CHINA AND INDIA TRADE BLOWS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

Posted by Isaac Hewlings on 7 Dec 2012 in Business Risk, China, Energy, Exploration, Middle East, Military Activity, Political Risk, South Asia

The Indian Navy is making preparations to deploy in the South China Sea after Indian bilateral relations came under further strain this week following a disagreement over gas contracts off the Vietnamese coast. This event may seem to be another example of squabbling between the countries interested in this fractious body of water, it should serve as a useful reminder that while much of the world focuses on the events of the Arab Spring, troubling geopolitical tensions remain elsewhere.  

A NEW ERA OF ENGAGEMENT IN CENTRAL ASIA?

Posted by Isaac Hewlings on 1 Nov 2012 in Afghanistan, Business Risk, Central Asia, China, Corruption, Energy, Exploration, Mining, Organised Crime, Political Risk, South Asia, Taliban

The unveiling of India’s ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy this summer, along with Washington’s ‘New Silk Road’ and Chinese engagement in the region, suggests that Central Asia may be moving towards greater integration into the global economy. As ISAF prepares to leave Afghanistan in 2014, are there grounds for hope that the notoriously contested region will see co-operative and economically fruitful relations between the regional heavyweights?

As ever, the success of these great powers’ policy is inextricably linked to Afghanistan. If the US can identify an exit strategy that guarantees the integrity of the country, at least in the short-term, then a fertile environment for large infrastructure projects may take hold. Unless such stability in Afghanistan is achieved then any progress towards integrating the fragile Central Asian states into the global economy will be precluded. A prolonged internecine war in Afghanistan would destroy the viability of these projects, as well as change the terms of the game into those of a fiercely competitive nature. Only Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which have existing, though limited, access to energy markets abroad, would be insulated.

WHEN TO CALL TIME IN AFGHANISTAN

Posted by Charlotte Ingham on 7 Mar 2012 in Afghanistan, IEDs, Military Activity, Political Risk, South Asia, Taliban

It was reported on 07 March 2012, that six British soldiers were killed after the Warrior armoured vehicle in which they were travelling was hit by an explosion. The situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated significantly in recent weeks, undermining assertions that there was cause for optimism about the country’s future. Here we examine the impact of the “inappropriate disposal” of copies of the Koran, which has prompted a wave of violent demonstrations and retaliatory acts; the power of the perception of events in Afghanistan over the reality, and the prospects not only for future co-operation between NATO forces and the Afghan National Security Forces, but ultimately, for “lasting security”.

WILL NORTH KOREA’S KIM JONG UN BE HIS OWN MAN OR A PUPPET FOR THE MILITARY AND HIS AUNT?

Posted by Christian Earl on 9 Jan 2012 in East Asia, Military Activity, Political Risk, South Asia

The surprise “special broadcast” on North Korean television on 18 December 2011, declaring the death of North Korea’s sixty-nine-year-old ‘Dear Leader’ Kim Jong Il continues to reverberate both throughout the Korean peninsula and regionally. Despite condolences from Pyongyang’s few allies, such as China, and some positive statements being issued from Washington and Seoul as to the future for dialogue with the new government under his son Kim Jong Un, the political and military situation in the country remains in flux and it indeed seems that North Korea will shift towards collective rule from a strongman dictatorship to a ruling coterie withhis untested young son at the head. However, it is likely that it will either be the army or other strong family-linked political figures rather than Kim Jong Un who will pull the strings in the near future. And that any resultant military drills, weapons tests, or ramping up of its nuclear programme will be tantamount to that.