Posted by Cassie Blombaum on 10 Dec 2012 in Africa, Elections, Energy, Libya, Mali, Middle East, Military Activity, Political Risk, Revolution, Taliban, UK, United States
It is perhaps the most hackneyed phrase to come out of post-revolutionary Libya: there exists a law of unintended consequences, and the mission to oust maniacal dictator Muammar Gaddafi has resulted in such. Between talk of the role the 2011 uprising has had on what is left of the Malian state, to the impact of the Colonel’s removal on the thousands of returning Chadian mercenaries south of the border, international observers have watched with a keen eye the domino effect that Libya’s democratic transition has produced in the region.
If these scenarios have proven worrisome, it is the proliferation of weapons that has caused the greatest fear for intelligence officials. Arms, which were once set aside for the destruction of the Gaddafi regime, are now lining the arsenals of militant groups, some of which seek to destroy the very same states that helped their cause. Adding to the mixed bag of anxiety, are reports this week which allege that arms shipments from Qatar, which had been given the blessing of the United States, are now in the hands of rather unsavoury characters, including the notorious Abdul Hakim Belhadj. If these reports are accurate, then questions remain: To what extent has Qatar been cosying up to Islamist figureheads like Belhadj, a man some believe may have been connected to the attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi? And what, exactly, are Qatar’s goals for Libya?
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Posted by Isaac Hewlings on 1 Nov 2012 in Afghanistan, Business Risk, Central Asia, China, Corruption, Energy, Exploration, Mining, Organised Crime, Political Risk, South Asia, Taliban
The unveiling of India’s ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy this summer, along with Washington’s ‘New Silk Road’ and Chinese engagement in the region, suggests that Central Asia may be moving towards greater integration into the global economy. As ISAF prepares to leave Afghanistan in 2014, are there grounds for hope that the notoriously contested region will see co-operative and economically fruitful relations between the regional heavyweights?
As ever, the success of these great powers’ policy is inextricably linked to Afghanistan. If the US can identify an exit strategy that guarantees the integrity of the country, at least in the short-term, then a fertile environment for large infrastructure projects may take hold. Unless such stability in Afghanistan is achieved then any progress towards integrating the fragile Central Asian states into the global economy will be precluded. A prolonged internecine war in Afghanistan would destroy the viability of these projects, as well as change the terms of the game into those of a fiercely competitive nature. Only Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which have existing, though limited, access to energy markets abroad, would be insulated.
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Posted by Charlotte Ingham on 7 Mar 2012 in Afghanistan, IEDs, Military Activity, Political Risk, South Asia, Taliban
It was reported on 07 March 2012, that six British soldiers were killed after the Warrior armoured vehicle in which they were travelling was hit by an explosion. The situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated significantly in recent weeks, undermining assertions that there was cause for optimism about the country’s future. Here we examine the impact of the “inappropriate disposal” of copies of the Koran, which has prompted a wave of violent demonstrations and retaliatory acts; the power of the perception of events in Afghanistan over the reality, and the prospects not only for future co-operation between NATO forces and the Afghan National Security Forces, but ultimately, for “lasting security”.
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Posted by Charlotte Ingham on 24 Oct 2011 in Afghanistan, IEDs, Military Activity, Political Risk, South Asia, Taliban
In recent months, with Taliban forces having suffered a series of blows following increased ISAF operations facilitated by the surge of US troops stationed in the country, and al Qaeda believed to have been reduced to a mere 100 members based in Afghanistan, the Haqqani Network has become increasingly prominent. The group, which has been described by the US as the top threat to security in Afghanistan, is not a new entity, but the reason it has not attracted attention until relatively recently appears simply to be that previously the group was hidden amongst the plethora of other militants in the country, but, as these forces have suffered a series of blows the Haqqani Network and its role in the ongoing conflict has become increasingly visible. (Please note, this is not to dismiss the fact that the Taliban remain a credible and resilient threat, as, although it is assessed to have turned away from more direct attacks on ISAF forces, it is instead relying on IED attacks and assassination which, whilst they require minimal manpower have the potential to provide maximum impact). Here we look more at the origins of the group and the efforts being taken to undermine it.
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Posted by Charlotte Ingham on 10 Oct 2011 in Afghanistan, Corruption, IEDs, Military Activity, Organised Crime, Political Risk, South Asia, Taliban
On 07 October 2011, the world reluctantly marked the tenth anniversary of the war in Afghanistan, as concerns persist over the prospects for “lasting” security for the Afghan people once ISAF forces withdraw in 2014. Reflecting on the challenges facing the country, on 06 October 2011, retired US Army General Stanley McChrystal, who commanded coalition forces in the country in 2009 – 2010 (before being controversially forced to resign following a magazine article in which it was considered that he had criticised President Barack Obama), said in an address to the Council on Foreign Relations: “We didn’t know enough and we still don’t know enough…Most of us — me included — had a very superficial understanding of the situation and history, and we had a frighteningly simplistic view of recent history, the last 50 years.” McChrystal noted that of the remaining tasks to be accomplished in the country, the most difficult may be to create a legitimate government that ordinary Afghans can believe in and that can serve as a counterweight to the Taliban.
Here we look at the current situation in Afghanistan, reflecting on changing Taliban tactics in response to ongoing ISAF operations, and highlighting that while the ISAF is making some progress, the Taliban is proving itself to be a resilient enemy. Of particular concern is the view that, while an opportunity may be being created, the country is not in a position to capitalise upon this because the government is yet to inspire the confidence of the people.
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