Africa

INKERMAN WEEKLY SECURITY REPORTS: MITIGATING BUSINESS RISK ACROSS THE MENA REGION

Posted by Desmond on 12 Mar 2012 in Africa, Corruption, Elections, Middle East, Military Activity, Organised Crime, Political Risk

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remains in flux following the region-wide unrest which took place throughout 2011, and continues into 2012. The “Arab Spring” manifested itself in different ways: largely following the same pattern of calls for reform, transparency and greater representation, through protests, strikes and even armed insurrection. In some cases this led to the downfall of authoritarian regimes which had dominated the political landscape of the region for decades. In others it created a ‘Pandora’s box’ which now cannot and will not be closed.

Since the beginning of the turmoil, The Inkerman Group has continued to provide a wide spectrum of services to its clients throughout the region – working with them to minimise the risk to the safety of both their staff and assets, and reduce the disruption caused to their business operations. For more information please visit the MENA page on our website: http://www.inkerman.com/gb/middle-east-and-north-africa

HOW THE AMERICAN REVOLUTIONARY WAR EXPLAINS TODAY’S LIBYA

Posted by Josephine on 12 Mar 2012 in Africa, America, Elections, Libya, Middle East, Political Risk, Revolution, United States

These are the stories of revolutions, or rather, their fallout. Although the path leading up to an uprising that ends in the deposing of a despised dictator is filled with idealism and bloody confrontation, the months and years following the official end of a revolution are perhaps more delicate. As is seen in both the American Revolution and in the current fallout from the 2011 Libyan uprising, dreaming of democracy is one thing, seeing democracy actually come to fruition is an entirely different story. The United States and Libya have undergone such dramatic democratic upheavals, each underpinned by their own history and cultural values, and despite their vast differences, the two countries have dealt with a similar set of circumstances in the wake of their respective revolutions: Both have had to deal with powerful militias whilst balancing the need for a central authority without neglecting the calls for a locally elected government. In the first part of this series, we will look at the how Libya is currently working towards amalgamating its militias in order to create a stronger, united country, an issue which the United States also had to take a deep look at in the aftermath of its Revolutionary War.

SENEGAL: LAUNCH PAD FOR THE AFRICAN SPRING?

Posted by Josephine on 27 Feb 2012 in Africa, Elections, Middle East, Political Risk

Thousands have taken to the streets, protesters have engaged in clashes almost daily with national security forces, whilst disenchanted youths continue to call for an aging leader who has been in power for more than twelve years to step down. This is not a flashback to the ‘Arab Spring’ uprisings of 2011. This is Senegal, in the days leading up to the hotly contested 2012 presidential elections.

SOMALI PIRACY: A PERVASIVE THREAT

Posted by Spoons on 23 Feb 2012 in Africa, Political Risk

With world leaders  descending on London for what is being described as a major conference on the future of Somalia, a country UK Foreign Secretary William Hague recently described as the “world’s worst failed state” is once again being thrown back into international focus. Of the country’s many ills, the growth of piracy in the region continues to garner considerable international attention, an understandable preoccupation considering that recent estimates have suggested that Somali piracy cost the world economy between US$6.6 – US$6.9 billion in 2011. There is however, an increasing body of opinion that efforts to tackle piracy in the Indian Ocean, such as increased security and the development of avoidance tactics, are working. Despite this belief, it is now increasingly apparent that these efforts will remain relatively futile until there is a substantial change in the country itself tackling the crux of the issue and giving those currently engaged in piracy an alternative. Somali Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali has recently warned that the country is at what could be described as a “critical juncture”. This assessment is certainly equably applicable to the current state of piracy and presents us with an interesting opportunity to assess the future of this global scourge.

ONE YEAR ON: LIBYANS JOYFUL DESPITE GROWING UNCERTAINTY

Posted by Josephine on 20 Feb 2012 in Africa, Elections, Middle East, Political Risk

Thousands of people took to the streets in cities across Libya, waving their arms, shouting and singing as fireworks blasted in the skies. Gone were the monochromatic green flags of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, instead, in the hands of most citizens, were the red, black and green colours of post-Gaddafi Libya. The bold new tri-coloured flag, which features a white crescent moon and star in the centre, is, in effect, the symbol of a bold, new Libya. Only one year after the bogeyman himself, the now deceased Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, initiated a bloody crackdown against his own people which left more than 200 dead in a single day in Benghazi on 20 February 2012, Libyans are now enjoying something they have not experienced in nearly half a century: freedom.

LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES STRIKES AGAIN: WAS GADDAFI’S REMOVAL GOOD FOR MALI?

Posted by Josephine on 13 Feb 2012 in Africa, Military Activity, Political Risk

Proving that no supposedly good deed goes unpunished, the ousting of Gaddafi has arguably led to further security problems across the Sahel as new revolutionary groups are emerging in the months following the end of the Libyan uprising, thanks in large part to an almost never ending supply of weapons. Underscoring just how widespread this problem is, on 26 January 2012, the UN released a report indicating that militant groups in Africa’s Sahel region, including Nigerian-based Islamic terror organisation, Boko Haram, and al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), now have access to thousands of arms that are thought to have originated from the late dictator Muammar Gaddafi’s vast weapons caches. The Inkerman Group already noted this problem back in October 2011, as reports indicated that at least 10,000 surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) had made their way across the Sahel, whilst other weapons from Libya were spotted as far away Somalia. Just how problematic the fall of Gaddafi is for the security of Africa still remains to be seen. Nevertheless, his ouster has already had unintended consequences in Mali, Niger, Chad, and Mauritania, as nomadic tribes, who previously fought alongside the Libyan dictator thanks to his years of support, are now wreaking havoc across the region.